Arsh Kumar Singh
I work on probability, statistics and reinforcement learning, and write about the math in pictures.
About
I'm interested in decisions made under uncertainty: how to tell a good choice from a lucky one, how much evidence it takes to be sure, and what a learning agent actually picks up when chance touches every outcome.
Most of what I write here starts as a question that sounds simple and ends as an equation. I try to explain each one the way I'd want it explained to me: the picture first, then the algebra.
Projects
Controlled luck
In progressMeasuring how much of an outcome is skill and how much is chance, with matched randomness, exact solutions of small games, and learning agents.
Writing
- How much of a win is luck?
A strip of paper, one equation, and how skill and chance split the outcome of a game between them.